Transition 2025: Business Impact

• Priorities may change, but enforcement is likely to remain active.
• Continued focus on investigations and litigation targeting big tech platforms, but more leniency on acquisitions of smaller innovators and nascent competitors.
• Increased investigations and enforcement actions against companies in certain sectors (e.g., media) or corporate initiatives in areas, including DEI and ESG.
• Likely continued focus on no-poach and other labor conduct issues.
• Transition period may involve at least a temporary slowdown in both clearance and enforcement due to higher than usual staff turnover.
• Democratic State AGs likely to increase enforcement in areas where federal enforcement decreases.

Contacts:

Shawn Johnson	Jason C. Murray

• Heightened priority on the energy and manufacturing sectors, including policies to increase domestic oil and gas production and advance domestic manufacturing in the energy technology space.   
• Anticipated ESG backlash and potential clashes with EU ESG requirements.
• Declines in climate-driven federal regulation, decarbonization efforts, and enforcement initiatives.
• Renewed focus on state level climate change regulation and litigation.
• Uptick in state-level environmental investigations and enforcement activity.
• Renewed focus on “compliance assurance” at the federal level, with enhanced opportunities to resolve pending federal enforcement actions favorably.

Contacts:

Kirsten L. Nathanson	Thomas A. Lorenzen	Amanda Shafer Berman

Finance/Loan Trading:

• Relaxed regulations could allow banks to lend to more highly levered borrowers and help to increase activity in the acquisition financing and secondary market spaces.
• Expect to see additional efforts to pass federal legislation in the area of litigation finance.

Derivatives:

• As part of the larger DOGE effort, there is discussion of the possible merger of the CFTC and the SEC.   

Digital Assets:

• Less enforcement by the SEC and the CFTC is anticipated, as well as more clarity as to which digital assets constitute securities and which ones do not. 

Bankruptcy/Restructuring

• Wide-spread tariffs could have a significant impact on, for example, US manufacturers that rely on foreign parts and cannot pass those costs on to their customers.  This may lead to more bankruptcies and out-of-court restructurings.

Regulatory (AML)

• Project 2025 calls for FinCEN to rescind rules implementing the Corporate Transparency Act that require companies organized or registered to do business in the U.S. to report information about their companies and individual beneficial owners to FinCEN, a bureau of the Treasury Department.  It also calls on Congress to repeal the CTA. 

Investment Funds (General)

• With the appointment of SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the SEC's rulemaking agenda is expected to shift significantly, focusing on rolling back or revising progressive initiatives and reducing regulatory burdens for funds.
• Despite the anticipation of a more industry-friendly regulatory environment under SEC Chair Atkins, the agency’s core examination and enforcement priorities for funds and advisers are unlikely to change significantly.

Contacts:

Carlton Greene	Paul B. Haskel

• New leadership in Washington, with Republican control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and White House, will be focused on advancing tax reform, immigration, and energy policy.  
• A new group of political advisors, cabinet officials, and influencers will shape policy direction, timing and scope, presenting both opportunities and challenges.
• Narrow majorities in Congress will require bipartisan engagement with key members of House and Senate committees and leadership.
• Influence in Washington depends not only on relationships, but a deep bench of policy and legislative experience.
• White House and Congressional agenda likely to include:

• • • Continued focus on trade policy with expected significant tariff increases and other trade remedies will likely impact every sector of the US economy that relies on foreign supply chains.
    • Rollback of financial services regulatory requirements and a lighter touch on enforcement.
    • Deregulatory policies in the technology sector with a focus on AI, fintech, and blockchain.
    • Prioritization of domestic energy production with renewed support for the development of fossil fuels and a potential rollback of certain clean energy initiatives.
    • Dynamic health care policy environment, with focus on reform and an unconventional approach to public health and life sciences regulation.

Contacts:

Aaron C. Cummings	James G. Flood

• Shifting priorities leading to terminations of contracts and grants, funding reductions and deductive changes on disfavored programs.
• Renewed focus on America First Sourcing.
• Repeal of Biden Executive Orders affecting Government Contractors.
• Impacts of anticipated new tariffs on contract costs and pricing.
• Enhanced focus on information protection and the safeguarding government data.
• Streamlining government procurement process and leveraging commercial purchasing.
• Heightened risk of conflicts of interest and associated compliance risks and bid protests.

• Erosion of socio-economic programs, preferences, and policies.

Contacts:

Adelicia R. Cliffe	Peter Eyre	Daniel R. Forman

• The future of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), including potential repeal or reduction and elimination of funding for enrollment assistance.
• Drug pricing and health care price transparency, focusing on Medicare drug price negotiations, PBM reports, and drug competition legislation.
• Digital health, interoperability, and AI policy, encompassing telehealth, Medicare coverage, health information exchange, interoperability regulations, the Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement (TEFCA), and information blocking. 
• Health care workforce challenges which will be affected by reimbursement, enrollment, and coverage policies.
• Supply chain and trade issues, particularly drug and other supply shortages, creating challenges for healthcare providers.
• Reforms to Medicare and Medicare Advantage, including making MA the default, deregulation, changes to fraud and abuse enforcement, and the potential removal of the American Medical Association (AMA) from the Relative Value Scale Update Committee (RUC) process.
• Changes in Medicaid policy, such as work requirements, reductions in FMAP percentages, block grant waivers, and eligibility modifications.

Contacts:

Troy A. Barsky	Chris Flynn

• Heightened focus on the upcoming USMCA six year review and policy shifts by Mexico and Canada in response.
• Continued attention to regulatory divergence risks and remedies in global trade.
• Mitigating risks from increased sanctions and trade restrictions on Iran and China.
• Significant Increase in tariffs and the potential for an increase in supply chain disputes.
• Increase of disputes concerning cross-border transactions in MENA.

Contacts:

Ian A. Laird	Laurence Winston

• Tariffs: Likely efforts to increase tariffs on imports into the U.S., particularly for imports from China as well as allies (e.g., Mexico), and corresponding risks of offsetting or retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries.
• Sanctions: Expected use of sanctions as a key foreign policy tool, with potential policy shifts on Russia, Iran, Venezuela, China, and others, all of which increases risk of divergence from allies and corresponding conflict of law scenarios for multinational companies.
• China: Beyond tariffs and sanctions, expanded utilization of all available tools to pressure China, including export controls, inbound and outbound investment reviews, supply chain reviews (e.g., related to connected vehicles), transfer of personal data, etc.
• Forced Labor: Ramp up in U.S. enforcement and expectations, coupled with new legislation globally (EU, UK, Canada, others).
• Export Controls: Willingness to sharply increase restrictions on sensitive technologies as well as cross-cutting restrictions on all U.S. items to certain jurisdictions (e.g., China) and entities (e.g., Entity List)
• Trade Remedies: While trade remedy litigation never declined after Trump’s first term, we expect a second Trump Administration to motivate domestic petitioners to be proactive across every tool they have at their disposal (antidumping, countervailing duties, Section 337, etc.)
• Investment Restrictions: Increased scrutiny of inbound and outbound investment, particularly the implementation of the new restrictions on outbound investment
• ICTS: Enhanced scrutiny of transactions in the Information and Communications Technology and Services (ICTS) Supply Chain

Contacts:

Nicole Janigian Simonian	David (Dj) Wolff

• Unknown future of the OFCCP and affirmative action obligations for federal contractors and subcontractors – alternatives currently under consideration.
• Differing timelines for significant personnel shifts and changes in enforcement stances at the NLRB, the EEOC, and the DOL – possible approaches and ramifications.
• Renewed focus on challenging Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) programs and training – will we see Commissioner Charges from the EEOC?
• Continued focus on religion in the workplace and approach to sexual orientation and transgender issues – guidance and litigation likely.
• Enhanced scrutiny of worker classification issues both in the US and globally.
• Vocational and educational training opportunities – is there an opening for employers to enhance their workforces through federal programs.

Contacts:

Trina Fairley Barlow	Kris D. Meade

• Anticipated increase in State AG initiated litigation focused on federal government regulation of food, drugs and environmental issues. 
• Uptick in litigation and regulation of consumer protection laws by State AGs. 
• Federal and state preemption challenges on the rise under the new Administration.
• Continued and sustained focus on ESG and DEI in business and education.
• Changing legislative landscape for State AGs to address reproductive, LGBTQ and Transgender rights.

Contacts:

Toni Michelle Jackson	Holly A. Melton

• Many of the tax cuts and Jobs Acts tax provisions expire at the end of 2025, and extension of these provisions is a high priority for President-Elect Trump and Congressional Republicans.
• President-Elect Trump has stated that he wants to extend TCJA during his first 100 days in office.
• Congressional Republicans are not in agreement on whether to move forward with the budget reconciliation bill focusing on border security and tax, or to break it into two bills.
• President-elect Trump raised other potential tax changes during his campaign, including reducing the corporate income tax rate, withdrawing from multilateral tax reform efforts, eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income, and lowering GILTI tax rates.
• President-elect Trump and Congressional Republicans have proposed repealing some or all of the Inflation Reduction Act clean energy tax credits to pay for TCJA extenders and additional tax cuts.
• The Trump administration is expected to implement significant changes to the IRS that will impact audit and examination practices.

Contacts:

Christine K. Lane	S. Starling Marshall