Insights

Regardless of what happens in the U.S. elections on November 5, one theme is clear – protectionist policies in international trade are here to stay. To some extent, the key difference between the trade policies of a Harris administration and a second Trump Administration may be one of degree. Vice President Harris is expected to continue the more cautious, incremental approach to trade policy favored by the Biden Administration. A second Trump administration, on the other hand, is expected to pick up where it left off and aggressively use the trade tools at its disposal to try to reset and renegotiate trade relationships with many of the U.S.’s trading partners—particularly those countries with whom the U.S. has a trade deficit.

The U.S. Department of Commerce unveiled a groundbreaking analytic risk assessment tool to inform the U.S. government’s efforts in mitigating supply chain risks. Launched at the inaugural Supply Chain Summit hosted by the Department of Commerce and the Council on Foreign Relations on September 10, 2024, the SCALE Tool marks a significant milestone in the U.S. government’s broader commitment to strengthening the U.S. supply chain ecosystem. 

On July 9, 2024, the CHIPS Research and Development Office released a Notice of Intent (NOI) to announce a third CHIPS Act Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO), which will be the first focused on the CHIPS National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program.  The NOFO will provide up to $1.6 billion for research and development activities in five areas of semiconductor advanced packaging, including (1) equipment, tools, processes and process integration; (2) power delivery and thermal management; (3) connector technology like photonics and radio frequency; (4) the chiplets ecosystem; and (5) co-design/electronic design automation.  The NOFO is expected to include prototype development opportunities in exemplar applications including high-performance computing and low-power systems needed for artificial intelligence.  The NOI also provides information about eligibility expectations and other anticipated requirements for applications.

On October 30, 2023, President Biden released an Executive Order (EO) on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI).  This landmark EO seeks to advance the safe and secure development and deployment of AI by implementing a society-wide effort across government, the private sector, academia, and civil society to harness “AI for good,” while mitigating its substantial risks.

On June 21, 2023, Senate Majority Leader Charles (“Chuck”) Schumer (D-NY) released a broad policy framework, the SAFE Innovation Framework for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Policy (“the Framework”), to help guide Congress in developing future AI legislation. The Framework emphasizes the importance of maintaining national security, combatting misinformation, protecting intellectual property, and developing transparency requirements for AI systems developers. While the Framework is Senator Schumer’s work product, he’s already started searching for allies in his own party and across the aisle. Leader Schumer has convened a bipartisan working group that includes Senators Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Michael Rounds (R-SD), and Todd Young (R-IN) to consider future AI legislation. They haven’t specifically endorsed Schumer’s framework, but they’ve committed to working with him on the issue. As they look to put an AI bill together, Schumer’s office will be looking to Senate Committees as a major source for legislative language.  

On March 9, 2023, President Biden released his fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget request outlining the administration’s priorities, including a nearly 10 percent increase in discretionary spending over the current enacted funding levels. The President’s budget requests a total of $6.9 trillion federal spending for FY 2024. Of this amount, $4.2 trillion would be in mandatory spending and $1.9 trillion would be in discretionary spending. Defense spending would receive an approximately 3 percent increase from FY 2023 for a total of $885 billion in discretionary spending, while non-defense spending would receive a nearly 4 percent increase from FY 2023 levels for a total of $1.02 trillion in FY 2024. The President’s budget request proposes a 7 percent increase over current non-defense spending level and tax increases among other proposed revenue raisers designed to lower the national deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years. 

On March 1, 2023, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (“USTR”) issued the Biden Administration’s 2023 Trade Policy Agenda (“Agenda”) and 2022 Annual Report (“Report”). The Report was submitted to the Congress pursuant to Section 163 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended. The Report’s 211 pages, plus three annexes, detail the Administration’s ongoing trade priorities and summarize trade activities in 2022, including trade agreements and negotiations, trade enforcement activities, other trade activities, and updates on work at the World Trade Organization.

On February 28, 2023, the Commerce Department released the first Notice of Funding Opportunity (“First NOFO”) under the recently enacted CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS Act), P.L. 117-167. The First NOFO seeks applications for assistance—including direct funding, loans, and loan guarantees—for projects to construct, expand, or modernize commercial semiconductor facilities.  

Beginning on February 8, the members of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the Biden-Harris Administration’s signature economic initiative in the Asia-Pacific, held the next framework negotiating round. This round advanced the arrangement’s supply chains, clean economy, and fair economy pillars and continued to build on the negotiating text that was tabled at the last negotiating round. Notably, it did not include negotiations on the trade pillar, of which India is not a member. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Summit, which will be held in San Francisco in late 2023 has been cited as a tentative target date by which the parties hope to conclude the negotiations.

With the midterm elections (mostly) behind us (Republicans won a narrow House of Representatives majority, and Democrats will retain their slim Senate majority), Congress will return to Washington next week to tackle a list of must-pass items before the conclusion of the 117th Congress. Topping the must-do list in this period referred to as the “lame duck” session is funding the government for the remainder of fiscal year 2023 before the current continuing resolution (CR) expires on December 16 and passing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual defense policy bill. Many other issues are likely to be taken up in what is expected to be a very active end of the 117thCongress. In addition to these legislative priorities, the Senate will likely pass the annual tax extenders bill, try to fit in a few other priority bills that have waited all year or are time sensitive, and continue to process federal judicial nominations and agency appointments that need Senate confirmation.

Crowell & Moring International (CMI) commemorates “World Health Day” with the publication of our compiled health policy forecast for the year. “Global Health: A Look Ahead at Trends in Seven Key Areas” explores global health trends and challenges at the forefront of business, government and public concerns.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and the U.S. Commerce Department are seeking comments on objectives for the Biden Administration to pursue in development of an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

Just days following the enactment of the omnibus appropriations law for the remainder of the current fiscal year ending on September 30, President Biden released a $5.7 trillion budget proposal for the 2023 fiscal year. The President is seeking from Congress $1.64 trillion in funding for discretionary programs, a nine percent increase from current funding levels. Of that amount, the proposed budget seeks $813 billion in defense spending and $829 billion for non-defense programs.  In contrast, almost two-thirds of the proposed budget – $3.65 trillion – is earmarked for mandatory spending including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The White House projects the proposal would result in a $1.3 trillion decline in the federal deficit due in large part to new proposed taxes, including a 15 percent minimum tax on corporate profits and a new minimum tax on households worth more than $100 million.

During his first State of the Union address, President Joseph Biden promised continued coordination with allies and pressure against Russia in response to that country’s invasion of Ukraine before pivoting to a domestic agenda and economic recovery plan centered on improving health care for all Americans, rebuilding American manufacturing and infrastructure, and addressing lingering effects of the pandemic. President Biden highlighted accomplishments of his first year in office, such as enactment of the American Rescue Plan and the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and renewed a call for reforming the tax code and immigration system, raising the minimum wage, lowering pharmaceutical prices, subsidizing child care, banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, and strengthening voting rights – all major priorities of the Democratic party that have stalled in the closely divided Congress.

Late in the evening on Friday, November 5, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the $1 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill (BIB), reauthorizing various surface transportation programs, paving the way for $550 billion in new infrastructure spending over five years, and paying a significant down payment towards the President’s goal of transitioning the transportation sector away from fossil fuels.  The legislation passed the U.S. Senate on August 10, 2021, and now awaits the President’s signature.

Infrastructure reform has been the talk of Washington, D.C., for years. The Trump and the Biden Administrations both made it a high priority, and the issue has now come to a head in Congress. In July, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the $715 billion INVEST in America Act (H.R. 3684) along a largely party-line vote. After months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, the U.S. Senate moved decisively to pass a $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill followed by a $3.5 trillion partisan Budget Resolution just prior to starting recess on August 11, 2021. The U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to return to session on August 23, 2021 to take up both Senate-passed measures. While the prospects for infrastructure reform becoming law are stronger than they have been in years, there are a number of potential pitfalls that could derail the efforts this fall. The following is a summary of the current state of play in this August recess which will soon become an incredibly busy fall.

After 100 days in office, President Joe Biden has made it clear that he is not afraid to go it alone to pursue policy to match his campaign rhetoric and promises. The first 100 days of the administration were marked by a significant number of executive orders, a historic economic stimulus package passed with only Democratic support in Congress, and sweeping proposals that – if enacted – could transform everyday life for a significant number of Americans.