Election 2024: Transportation Policy and Politics, Ruling the Road in 2025

The opportunity to create and shape major policies impacting the transportation sector will be teed up in 2025. Some changes will be led or initiated by the change in Administration, some will come from expected retirements or potential changes in majorities, and other changes will be put in the forefront of congressional leaders because of expiring laws. In this client alert, part of our Election 2024 series, we identify some of the expected changes, opportunities, and challenges ahead for transportation policy.

DEADLINE: SURFACE TRANSPORTATION REAUTHORIZATION

Congress must reauthorize the Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act by September 30, 2025. This law funds infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, waterways, and mass transit, for five fiscal years. The last Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act that Congress passed provided more than half a trillion dollars to federal agencies, state entities, and other programs. Congressional hearings will likely begin early in 2025.

A major challenge is the Highway Trust Fund (HTF), which is projected to be exhausted by 2028. Potential solutions, such as increasing the gas tax or implementing vehicle miles traveled fees, face political hurdles. A variety of ideas will likely be proposed, from user fees to taxes on electricity used to fuel electric vehicles. Details on how these new ideas will be implemented remain unclear and any impacted party should be in the halls of Congress advocating to ensure their interests are protected.

ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION ON AVIATION ACTIVITY

Earlier this year, Congress passed legislation to reauthorize and fund the Federal Aviation Administration through fiscal year 2028, which cleared the decks for House and Senate action on other aviation-related policy. However, a change in administration could have significant implications for aviation consumer protection and competition regulation pending in the courts and regulatory agencies.

For instance, in April 2024, the Department of Transportation (DOT) finalized two aviation consumer protection rules, requiring airlines to promptly provide automatic cash refunds and up-front disclosure of ancillary fees. While the refund rule goes into effect on October 28, 2024, the ancillary fee transparency rule has been challenged by the industry in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. The pending rule has been stayed by the court for possibly exceeding DOT’s authority.

On the competition side, recent challenges to airline tie-ups (JetBlue/Spirit, and American/JetBlue Northeast Alliance) and first-time ever consumer protection conditions on the Alaska/Hawaiian merger demonstrate the ongoing focus on industry concentration. A Trump Presidency could significantly roll back and deprioritize these efforts, while we could see further entrenchment of these policies and continued enforcement under a Harris Presidency.

ZERO EMISSION VEHICLES

Earlier this year, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized emissions rules for passenger, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles. These rules aim to transition the entire transportation sector to zero emission vehicles fueled by electricity or hydrogen. There are rolling deadlines, some of which begin in 2027 and litigation is pending on both of these regulations.

The next President will have a major impact on the agency’s ability to defend these rules in court and, if they are not struck down, to implement them. Former President Trump has noted both his opposition to the electrification of the roadways and interest in working with some businesses to ensure that the policies work. Vice President Harris is expected to continue the work that EPA has undertaken to date.

CHANGES TO COMMITTEES: RETIREMENTS AND POTENTIAL CHANGES TO MAJORITIES

Four main Congressional committees oversee transportation policy. In some circumstances, leadership of these committees will change no matter the outcome of the election. Any change to a chairmanship or ranking member will impact the focus and priorities of the committees’ work. Here are a few of the leadership changes we might see for these key committees in 2025:

• Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee: This committee has jurisdiction over safety and data-related issues for the transportation sector including surface transportation and aviation. Should the majorities change and Republicans take control of the Senate, Ted Cruz (R-TX) is slated to be the incoming Chair.
• Senate Environment and Public Works Committee: This committee has jurisdiction over construction of roads, bridges, and waterways as well as the Army Corps of Engineers. The current chair, Tom Carper (D-DE), is retiring at the end of this Congress, leaving this committee with a new chair no matter which party is in the majority. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) is in line to take the spot as top Democrat and Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) will remain the lead on the Republican side of the aisle.
• House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee: This committee has jurisdiction over policies related to the roads. Currently chaired by Representative Sam Graves (R-MO), the House Republican caucus rules might unseat the Republican leader. He has served four years as the committee’s lead Republican in the minority and two in the majority. It is possible to get a waiver from House Republican leadership to extend his stay as the top Republican, a scenario likely only if Republicans retain the House Majority. Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA) is expected to remain at his post as top Democrat for the committee.
• House Energy and Commerce Committee: This committee has jurisdiction over policies related to safety, data security, and consumer affairs. The current chair, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), is retiring at the end of this Congress, leaving this committee with a new chair no matter which party is in the majority. There are currently two Republicans publicly vying for the lead spot, Representatives Bob Latta (R-OH) and Brett Guthrie (R-KY). Richard Hudson (R-NC), who currently serves as Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, is also mulling a run to lead this committee. Representative Frank Pallone (D-NJ) is expected to remain at his post as top Democrat for the committee.

CONCLUSION

The transportation policy agenda in the upcoming 119^thCongress and incoming administration, like any other policy area, will be significantly impacted by the outcome of the 2024 elections. Both parties remain united in recognizing the urgency of making further investments in transportation infrastructure, even beyond those facilitated by the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. At the same time, Democrats and Republicans differ on particular priorities, some of which are highlighted above. Additionally, the new President will bring her or his own priorities to the discussion next year, providing yet another variable to the policy forecast. While any of several different election outcome scenarios are possible, the outcome could well be ongoing divided government control, meaning that the two parties will continue to need bipartisan agreement to move significant transportation policy and appropriations in the next Congress.

The Crowell team stands ready to help you further your company’s business interests in the transportation and other policy arenas in these continuously changing and opportunistic times.